Do Something With Your Marketing: Saturday Night Data Party

Tonight we're doing data analysis on economic data. We're gonna start with stocks. Let's look at our marketing technology stock portfolio. And set this to average. Hey Ashley.

And let's go to year let's go weekly data. Whoof, all right. DS close and make this colorful. Average. Alright, so what we're looking at so far is uh a series of stocks.

These are technology stocks, Adobe, Alibaba, Salesforce, eBay, and looking at the last uh 20 years to see how things have been going. See this it's it's interesting when you look at this, just how inflated the market got really since 2015. Uh what happened in this period here was that the Federal Reserve was pumping a crazy amount of money into the market overall, and as a result, uh had nowhere else to go, so people just started pouring it into stocks, and this of course appears Google doing uh being Google. Let's restrict this to 2020 and see how this looks. Alright.

And let's go, yep, we're at day level. So we started the year doing fine, and then if you look, everything starts to go off right around February 19th or 20th. So that's clearly when the market began to feel uncertainty about uh the current situation. And then of course the last couple weeks things have just not gone well. The stocks that are definitely felt it the most, the Google.

Oh, this doesn't look like anybody has done like super well. Let's do uh percent difference over range. Yeah, look at that volatility. Just up and down, up and down uh like crazy. Who's this?

That was I don't even remember what company that is uh NCMI. Let's look at move this in. Let's look at the last month range of dates. Let's go. There we go, since February.

Man. Generally speaking, uh it really is just up and down every single day. Let's move this to weekly. Just clean up some of the junk. Well, there's your answer about how's the market's doing.

Oracle managing to eke out a minor victory there. Uh everything else not doing so well. CCO. Geez, outbrain. A lot of the contents indicators did Lamar outdoor advertising.

Yeah, 33% down. Yelp down 31%. Well, that's lovely. Alright, let's move to broader economic data. This is one of my favorite data sources, the Federal St.

Louis Federal Reserve. If you are not familiar with it, um, and you want to play with it, go to Fred. St. LouisFed.org and you get up to or more than 600,000 uh different data series. You can you know explore them within their interface.

You don't need any fancy software to do this. Uh you can just look at the data yourself, change the timelines, mess around with it to see what's going on. Let's go into our data set, and again, let's do our close number here. And we want to go to weekly level, let's go to our average, and let's drop in our symbols. And because this is data all over the place, we need to make this logarithmic.

Top series here, this is uh GS uh gross federal debt. This is the debt of the United States of America in uh I think it's billions. It's either it's 23 trillion dollars. Um it is gigantic, it's enormous. Uh, and as a result, it distorts everything you look at.

But you can see uh let's restrict this to 2020 here. Oh, it hasn't been released yet for this year. Um interestingly enough, there are a lot of series that are monthly, and so you see these gaps here, and then you see the more frequent series throughout here. There's the VIX. Well, let's just start knocking stuff off.

Railroad freight has been updated since December. That's odd. Exclude that. Alright. We have ICSA and ICSF, IC4WSA.

Go back to non-law logarithmic. ICSA is initial jobless claims. So jobless claims are when people go to the unemployment office and file for unemployment. And we can see, let's go to day level. This shot up like crazy last couple weeks.

So this was last week's jobless claims number, 281,000 uh new claims. The four-week moving average moving up as well. So that's not good. This is one of the ones to keep an eye on because this tells you in terms of the economy uh what's happening. If this shoots up really fast, then uh you know there's a problem.

So if I'm gonna take off if I take this restrictor off here, let's exclude this whole series because federal debt's not super helpful. Okay, and what is this? Oh, this is air freight. Uh how much freight gets moved by air. You'll notice um there's the dot com bubble recession.

This is the Great Recession. Look how long this was. So from May of 2008 to May of 2010 is when basically air freight took two years off. Um you can see we're already kind of at a top here. You can see the sort of head and shoulders kind of uh configurations.

We're at a top here for air freight. So we were already not in great condition uh at the end of 2019, and obviously you know 2020 is gonna look not great either. Knock that one off. Rail car freight. Railcar freight never really recovered after the Great Recession.

We're shipping a lossified rail, great recession, kind of came back, but not really, and then got whacked in the knees in 2016 and is still down. So rail car freight, one to keep an eye on to. That one's gonna take a hit because again, consumers not buying stuff. Here's our jobless claims. In the grand scheme of things so far, we're not nearly close to the great recession, right?

This is at the peak of the great recession, 665,000 clamps, you know, 281,000 claims here. So we're not in deep stuff yet. We're gonna keep an eye on this one because this one is uh if this shoots up spectacularly with all the layoffs happening because of the the pandemic, uh it could dwarf this. And you again you can see from really about here, this is where bare stones collapsed in 2007. We didn't get back to that level until seven years later.

So it took seven years to get the job market to recover. Um that's a really big system shock. And so we gotta keep an eye on on what's going on with the economy, and jobless claims is a great way to do it. Let's knock those off so we can keep going down the chart. This is petroleum amount of oil being moved through pipelines.

It's interesting here. This one is just been steadily climbing as the United States has become an exporter of petroleum products. So we're contributing to global warming uh, but making a lot of money doing it uh by shipping oil out of the country. And it's again where there's been a massive oil crash, so we'll see how that goes. Exclude that.

Alright, what do we got here? This is what is pay EMS. I should know this. Pay EMS, all employees, total non-farm. And this one should be uh total non-farm private payroll.

Again, Great Recession. You have 138 million people employed. And then didn't get back to there for six years. So when we see a payroll hit, companies are very slow to re rehire. And that means that for B2C companies, you have a large swath of population that cannot make money.

And then for B2B companies, of course, we have the issue of that we then have much less budget to work with because people are not uh spending money. This is real median household income. We are above sixty thousand dollars median household income in the new in the US two thousand seven, didn't get back until twenty fifteen. And we were doing great. What happened to that series that it got truncated there?

Let's see what uh see if the web interface has better data here. Yeah, it does tr it truncates to twenty eighteen. I wonder what happened there. Huh. I wonder why the series is not updating.

This is a not a good thing. If the government is failing to report that data for some reason, uh, it means they're don't want us looking at something. Yeah. File that away to something I'll look at later. Exclude.

Here we have per capita household income. This is up to date-ish. So per capita, which means per individual household income, $46,000 a year. Didn't see a hit in the Great Recession, but we did see it kind of just stay static and then start climbing back up. Alright.

Let's see what's next. Dow Jones. Yeah. Well. Unwinding that.

GDP. Gross domestic product. I didn't know this actually. GDP refers to things made within your borders, which where GNP, uh gross national product, is made things made by your citizens no matter where they live. GDP, there's a great recession.

Uh and then that recovered fairly quickly. That took three years to get back in action. Um GDP and GDP C1 is real GDP or inflation adjusted. So it took three years to get GDP restored. We have NASDAQ.

We all know that when all the markets took a bath this week. Job. Okay, this is JTS jolts. Job openings. The number of job openings over time.

There's the Great Recession. Job openings took seven years to get back to where they're supposed to be going. Hiring. So Great Recession. Hiring, eight years to get back.

Turnovers. The SP. Alright, so let's get rid of the job, the jolt's data. Now we've gone through that. Seven and eight years of time there.

S P 500, we know what happened there. Hey Joshua, glad it was the uh information has been useful. We have price of gold. So price of gold was big during the Great Recession. There is a point in time where uh you know you probably could have uh redeemed gold for thousands of dollars.

Uh Great Recession occurs there, you see gold shoots up. Gold came back down, but it never came back down after the Great Recession, right? So it is been high since then, and uh and still remains a pretty solid safe haven. Take that out. We have CPI.

So to wrap up, when we look at all these different data series, we're doing this kind of uh research, and you see the Great Recession, stuff like that, and you're looking at all these different economic indicators. The thing that we have to take a look at when we're trying to figure out what's going to happen next for the economy as we have this uh pandemic, is not just the shock to the system itself, but how long it's going to take the system to recover. The last system shock we had, the shortest interval of recovery was three years, and that was for GDP. The longest, excuse me, the longest intervals seven, eight years for jobs and hiring and household incomes to get back to where they're supposed to be. So when we look out over what's potentially could happen uh without large scale stimulus uh and and just helicopter money, uh could be looking at an economic recovery of up to eight years.

Right. So for your business planning, to the extent that you're doing uh planning to try and model what's likely to happen. If you're on the front end of things where there's you know industrial production stuff, uh let's see, this is for example, this is you know, rent of a primary residence, that shot right back up after the Great Recession. Those industries will probably be a little safer. Um, from uh if you're a B2B marketer, uh you'll want to look at those industries that can recover quickly, looking at economic indicators for your client base, figuring out what sectors they're in, and then what indicators to look back on and say, okay, you know, rent came back in three to four years, no trouble there.

Um, but if you're reliant on the consumer and household income, uh you might find that it's not gonna be as easy to get uh things back in the game. So keep that in mind. That's how we use this information. It's cool to have the indicators, and some of them can be forecasted, a lot of them can't because they're they're unpredictable, but use them to judge how long you're going to have an up or down economy uh for your sector, and then uh plan accordingly. You may need if you work like an agency or something, you may want to change uh where you invest your time, uh, where your company, what kinds of companies you go after as clients, uh, and focus on those sectors that show recovery the fastest.

Uh again, with the Federal Reserve, with the you know, the this economic research data, you can find pretty much any industry. Um so you could look at you know uh healthcare supplies and stuff and look at all the different in indices that you can look at for your sector and figure out where the recovery is going to be fastest and then where it's gonna be slowest. So use the economic data. It's there, it's free. I'm doing it in Tableau, but obviously you saw the the Fred stuff here is all you can do it right in the web interface.

No need to uh need to have expensive software to do it. I'm gonna be keeping an eye on this. Uh I hope you dig in and find uh your industry, your clients as well. And also look for the counter-cyclical stuff. So I have a one friend who does things like uh resume writing and you know, LinkedIn profile stuff for P for job seekers.

That person's about to be real busy, really real busy, uh, with you know uh up to an 11% unemployment rate. So, what are the countercyclicals that uh will benefit? You know, again, not good or bad. Well, I mean, generally we want people to be doing better and happier and healthier, but what's gonna do well in a down economy? Go back, do your research, look at this time period.

All the the Fred charts mark recessions with those these gray bars so you can compare and contrast and figure out what's going to do well, what's not gonna do well. Thanks for tuning in for those of you who tuned in for what is pot quite possibly the least exciting live stream uh of Saturday night. I encourage you to go see some popular musicians and uh or see Lynn Mal Manuel Miranda and Andrew Lloyd Wright, you know, battling each other off on uh music. And I'll talk to you guys soon. Take care.

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