Category: Economy

  • The eye of the storm

    A couple of years ago, I posted a graphic of the mortgage resets from Credit Suisse First Boston. Let’s see where we are now. Congratulations to all. We’ve made it through the subprime crisis and only lost GM, every investment bank, nearly wiped out the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund, put 1 out of 8 homeowners…

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  • Turning this economic ship around

    Take a look at these three charts. Bloomberg’s commodities index of indices: Commodities, or commodity futures, are investments in the future value of things like rice, gold, oil, cattle, and other tangible goods. Baltic Dry Index: The Baltic Dry Index is an index of costs to ship things on cargo ships. As BDI goes up,…

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  • Time is not money

    There’s a popular expression, a cliche, that says time is money. However, time isn’t money. Why? There is no such way to intermediate time. There is no coinage for time, no way to purchase time back that you have spent. If time were actually money, you could buy back that missed softball game or child’s…

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  • Seeds of the recovery

    The seeds of the economic recovery are beginning to sprout a little. While the broader economy still has a lot to shake off and the investment, credit, and financial markets still have more garbage to take out, there are small signs of recovery underway that will eventually grow to big signs down the road. A…

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  • Stop whatever you're doing and watch this video

    This is mandatory, absolutely must see material. The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo. I only wished the video went further. It ends at the credit crisis and failing investments – and the chain reaction beyond that is choking of credit to businesses, which puts some out of business, which creates joblessness,…

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  • A different stimulus idea that might work

    Jobs are what matter most. Here’s a stimulus idea to send to Washington. Create a $100,000 loan grant run through the federal department of your choice, backed by the Treasury. Businesses of any size may apply for and receive a $100,000, one year loan at the Federal Funds Rate. If a business then spends that…

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  • Yes, you're in a depression

    There’s no formal economic definition of a depression like there is a recession. That said, a depression is basically a really bad recession. The current environment fits that description aptly. Despite wishes to the contrary, more folks are realizing that we are in the midst of a new depression. Wall Street Journal: International Monetary Fund…

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  • What's all the stuff in the early morning tweet about?

    More than a few people who follow me on Twitter have been asking about what all the stuff is in one particular Tweet that I do daily, more for my own benefit to see where market indicators are. Here’s your morning tweet cheat sheet. Sample: DJIA +146 VIX 42.28 TED 95bps 3mo LIBOR 1.17 1mo…

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  • Where's the bottom? When do things get better?

    These are two questions I receive often on social networks: Where’s the bottom? When do things get better? First, a disclaimer: I am an armchair economist at best. I’ve never taken a course in economics, but I do own Economics for Dummies and have read it cover to cover many times. That’s enough for the…

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  • Understanding value

    What’s the fastest way to go out of business? I’d venture to say that it’s having a product or service at the wrong price. (that or having no revenue model) Nowhere is this highlighted more obviously than in fantasy markets such as the one in World of Warcraft. There are literally thousands of products you…

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