The eye of the storm
A couple of years ago, I posted a graphic of the mortgage resets from Credit Suisse First Boston. Let’s see where we are now.
Congratulations to all. We’ve made it through the subprime crisis and only lost GM, every investment bank, nearly wiped out the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund, put 1 out of 8 homeowners late or in foreclosure on their mortgages, and sent the economy into a tailspin. Otherwise, we made it through the subprime crisis.
We’re ready to start growing again, right?
Except… except the pool of alt-A and option ARM mortgages (all of which is defaulting at the same or higher rates of default than subprime 2 years ago) is still ahead, and it’s 50% bigger than the subprime mortgage market ever was.
If you’re thinking the worst of the storm has passed, it’s more like the eye of the hurricane. The second, stronger wall of the storm is arriving shortly. If you’re thinking that now is the time to spend a little more freely, to open up your wallet, think again and batten down the hatches. If anything, now is the time to increase your financial conservatism, to tighten spending if you can. Only once the storm has fully passed – in a couple of years – will it be time to go outside and start planting anew.
For more detailed charts, check out this post on Mish’s blog.
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Turning this economic ship around
Take a look at these three charts.
Bloomberg’s commodities index of indices:
Commodities, or commodity futures, are investments in the future value of things like rice, gold, oil, cattle, and other tangible goods.
Baltic Dry Index:
The Baltic Dry Index is an index of costs to ship things on cargo ships. As BDI goes up, the price to ship something goes up. Unlike most investment metrics which are based on future value, BDI measures what it costs now to ship something. BDI is important because you don’t buy shipping if you’re not moving stuff to sell.
New Jobless Claims:
This is the number of new unemployment claims, measured weekly.
All of these charts show stabilization in the economy – arresting the freefall. Is it because of sound economic policies, stimulus, or the natural course of time and the business cycle? Hard to say. Certainly anyone promoting their own interests will claim that they’re the key influencer, but I suspect it’s all of the above with an emphasis on natural market dynamics. Even the largest forest fire eventually runs out of things to burn and snuffs itself out in time.
Once the fire has passed, it’s time for the forest to regrow. Small, tentative steps at first, little sproutlings and seeds, but regrowth always happens.
I still think there’s other parts of the forest just catching fire now – commercial real estate, credit cards and last-resort consumer credit, etc. – that will burn for some time to come. That said, there is cause for optimism, however cautious. Be on the lookout for areas of regrowth that you can partake in and carefully wade in.
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Time is not money
There’s a popular expression, a cliche, that says time is money. However, time isn’t money. Why?
There is no such way to intermediate time. There is no coinage for time, no way to purchase time back that you have spent. If time were actually money, you could buy back that missed softball game or child’s first play. You can’t.
In fact, when you think about it, time isn’t money, but money is time. Money represents a store of value in classical economics terms, and value is time and energy spent on something.
Look at all of the things that function as money or precursors of money. The Pequot tribe had a certain kind of seashell called wampum. Multiple civilizations used gold and other metals as coinage. Why? Because these items were rare. Finding them, prospecting them, and refining them took time and effort.
Consider money as a store of time and energy, then. How long does it take for you to mine up a nugget of gold? Let’s say as a skilled miner that takes you two hours. How long does it take to harvest an ear of corn? For a skilled farmer, probably a few minutes at most. Thus, that nugget of gold is a time equivalent of two hours for a skilled tradesman. If you can harvest 80 ears of corn in two hours as a skilled farmer, then your corn is worth two hours of your efforts – or a nugget of gold, or whatever other store of value you choose. More important, as trades specialized over millennia of human history, it would take far longer for the miner to skill up his corn harvesting than it would for him to simply pay for the corn itself.
Time + energy + skill = value.
This is the basis of money, the raw foundation of money. Money stores value, and value is time, energy, and skill combined.
Consider what this means for social media and new media.
What things are you investing your time in, building skill, so that you’re creating value?
When someone starts to talk about monetization, exactly what value are they placing on your time, effort, and skill? More important, what value do you place on yourself?
This, by the way, is why so many folks in social media object to monetization – not because money is bad, but because any new field inevitably has two extremes: those folks willing to value themselves for a pittance (thus devaluing everyone else) or those folks who pimp and sell at obscenely high prices far above the value they create, thus undermining the entire community’s reputation and devaluing everyone else. After a field matures and the low bidders & snake oil salesmen are washed out, a balanced perspective on value is usually achieved.
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Seeds of the recovery
The seeds of the economic recovery are beginning to sprout a little. While the broader economy still has a lot to shake off and the investment, credit, and financial markets still have more garbage to take out, there are small signs of recovery underway that will eventually grow to big signs down the road. A few anecdotal pieces of information:
- It really looks like commodities have bottomed. They’ve flatlined for almost a full quarter, which is a major improvement over freefall. Sure, some of it is speculative, especially in gold, but lots of it is just ordinary business.
- BDI has bottomed and is slowly edging back up. If you’re not a follower of the world of freight and shipping, BDI is the Baltic Dry Index. Unlike other indicators, BDI is a price index to put stuff on ships. Unless you’ve got sales, you don’t spend the money to put stuff on ships and haul it across oceans.
- In a few conversations over the weekend, there’s a lot of new entrepreneurial activity going on. I talked to one guy who’s starting up a cash-basis real estate venture, working deals with landlords to manage vacant properties. Another guy is entering the biotech small business world as an importer of scientific equipment. Still another is doing regional direct resales of telco gear from shuttered companies.
One very interesting commonality among all of the folks I talked to with entrepreneurial ventures is that all of their business models – which at first glance appear quite sound – are also entirely cash-based. No one is touching credit, lending, or any form of debt either to run their businesses or as a way for customers to pay for services or goods.
This is likely to be the trend for a while, I suspect. No one is talking about equities, lending, or speculation, and rightly so – those markets are still incredibly unstable, subject to additional losses, and frankly, who wants to invest in the companies that got us to our current economic situation?
What does this mean for you? There are new opportunities beginning to spring up. If you have cash, if you have capital, there may be some great new opportunities to put it to use, either as an investor or an entrepreneur. If you’re looking for work, search more than just the big job boards – dig deep, use Google, find new businesses in and around your area. You might just find that ground floor opportunity you’ve been looking for.
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Stop whatever you're doing and watch this video
This is mandatory, absolutely must see material.
The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.
I only wished the video went further. It ends at the credit crisis and failing investments – and the chain reaction beyond that is choking of credit to businesses, which puts some out of business, which creates joblessness, which creates more mortgages that can’t be paid, which creates…
Hat tip to Garr Reynolds for this one.
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A different stimulus idea that might work
Jobs are what matter most. Here’s a stimulus idea to send to Washington.
Create a $100,000 loan grant run through the federal department of your choice, backed by the Treasury.
Businesses of any size may apply for and receive a $100,000, one year loan at the Federal Funds Rate. If a business then spends that loan funding solely on employment (verified by new payroll taxes and W-2 data from the IRS), at the end of one year, the loan is forgiven, essentially giving the business a free employee or three for a year.
Conditions: payroll taxes and W-2 data should verify that the business spent the equivalent of $100,000 solely on employing new hires. Using data the government collects anyway, controls should be able to easily verify that these are new hires and not existing employees. Don’t spend it correctly? IRS detects a little hanky panky? Interest capitalizes and the loan enters repayment immediately.
Why a stimulus idea like this? Rather than attempt to plow money into specific industries, this lets businesses hire or rehire based on what that specific business needs to grow. The Student Loan Network might need a junior web developer but the Advance Guard might need an admin. By giving businesses the discretion to hire who they need, the market can get the talent actually required, rather than decided by government fiat.
This kind of stimulus will, by design, disproportionately benefit small businesses. Because they’re more agile, this will help them grow faster. Because it’s small business, the ability to bring unemployed citizens in for retraining will work better – after all, you’ll learn the craft of baking bread faster at a small family bakery than you will at Omni Consumer Products Grain Division. (though certainly they can apply and get the same loan)
What’s the cost? The IRS estimates roughly 30 million small businesses exist in the US. Guess what? This is a three trillion dollar stimulus. Considering some of what’s being flung around Wall Street and DC, that’s in the ballpark of other proposals. What makes this one different? If 10% of businesses get the loan and start hiring, the 3 million job deficit goes away immediately, rather than waiting for government funding to flow through states, cities, and banks.
What’s your stimulus idea?
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