My morning news-stand

Posted by Christopher S Penn on Jun 4, 2009 in Mainstream Media, New media | 7 comments

Do you know what happens when you set foot in the ocean?

In that brief moment, you touch the world, all of it, because every drop of water that touches your feet has touched every shore, every beach ever.

So it is with the Internet, with social media, and with the news. When you check the morning news in your country, do you just check what’s happening in your nation, province, or city? Or do you take advantage of that little copper or fiber wire in your wall that is your footstep into the world?

I try to make a habit of checking headlines from major news sources every day to see more than one perspective. On my morning news-stand (fed into Google Reader and Calibre for the Kindle as well):

• BBC News
• The Boston Globe
• Bloomberg
• Reuters
• CNN
• The New York Times
• Daily Telegraph
• Montreal Gazette
• Toronto Globe and Mail
• The Sydney Morning Herald
• Asahi Shinbun
• Al Jazeera
• The Jerusalem Post
• Xinhua

If you don’t already read the headlines or news from a country other than your own, start today. It’s free to do and will give you a much wider perspective on what the world thinks is important. As recently happened with President Obama’s speech in Cairo, while the American media was occupied with David Carradine’s death, the rest of the world was mulling over the President’s words. If you read only American news sources, you might have missed some very interesting reactions elsewhere.

Are you deeply involved in social media? If so, chances are you’ve got at least one follower or friend in another country. Might be useful to know what’s topping the news where your friends are, too.

What’s on your news-stand?

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Winning against all odds

Posted by Christopher S Penn on Jun 3, 2009 in Awakening, Ninjutsu, On ko chi shin | 12 comments

An interesting bit of Twitter conversation fleshed out.

chrisbrogan: 10,000 hours of practice: the magic number of skill mastery. – Gladwell.
cspenn: Gladwell failed to answer how to overcome advantages that other outliers have. Only major flaw in that book.
chrisbrogan: meaning, in a pool of many 10k folks, what causes one person to rise?
cspenn: more like his hockey example – if you were NOT born in the 3 golden months, how can you still excel?
chrisbrogan: I thought he posited that you can’t.

You can.

The art of the ninja is more about perseverance and psychology than throwing stars and swords. Ultimately, the ninja faced Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers to an opposite extreme: they were outnumbered, outfunded, outgunned, and outdone in nearly every way. They faced an unforgiving wilderness, a hostile government, treachery at every turn, and no room for error. By any rational standards, they should have been instantly wiped out, quickly condemned to the dustbin of history as a mere footnote.

Yet amidst all this, they still had to win, against impossible odds. How do you win against the outliers, against people who have all the advantages of resources, time, energy, manpower, and culture?

One of the “hidden secrets” of ninja sword fighting that we’ve been exploring recently in the Boston Martial Arts Friday black belt classes is that the outcome of certain sword kata (patterns) is more dependent on mastery of yourself and your emotions than on what your attacker does. Certainly, you don’t take lightly someone in front of you with a four foot razor blade. You pay attention to them. You guard against them. But your success doesn’t hinge on just them.

The “secret” to “winning” in these routines is more about finding the weaknesses inside of yourself that are holding you back or causing you to make stupid mistakes, and minimizing their impact. I can’t speak for my classmates, but overcoming the desire to “win” (even though it’s just a practice exercise with nothing to “win”, not even a cookie) is one of my biggest weaknesses that I’m working on. If I can get past that, if I can just be there without trying to force an outcome, if I can get out of my own way, I am successful more often than not.

Sun Tzu, the war strategist, is often quoted:

One who knows the enemy and knows himself will not be in danger in a hundred battles.
One who does not know the enemy but knows himself will sometimes win, sometimes lose.
One who does not know the enemy and does not know himself will be in danger in every battle.

Most people, most businesses, most everyone falls in the third category. We don’t really know ourselves. We don’t really know what we’re up against, and frankly, it’s amazing we succeed at all. Make inroads even just a little at knowing yourself or knowing what you’re up against, and your chances of success go up.

The ninja won against all odds because they didn’t face perfect opponents. Certainly, they faced incredible odds, but by dedicating enormous time and energy towards knowing themselves and their own weaknesses, and doing their best to mitigate those weaknesses, they were able to win against enemies who statistically should have beaten them to a pulp 100% of the time – but didn’t.

Here’s the second-greatest “secret” of all: it’s easier to know yourself than it is to know the unknown future ahead of you. If you’re going to invest a ton of time and energy trying to even the odds, your best bet is to start with yourself. Yourself, your team, your organization or company, the things that you have control over and that you can study in great depth.

How do you do that? I leave that to my seniors, my betters, and recommend you pick up a copy of How To Own The World, by Stephen K. Hayes. An-Shu Hayes does a far better job laying out a practical means of figuring out what’s holding you back than I ever could. If you want to win more, go grab his book, read it, and practice the lessons in it.

(yes, there is a greatest secret of all, too. not for now.)

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Local recession indicators

Posted by Christopher S Penn on Jun 2, 2009 in Economy | 10 comments

Want to know how the recession is affecting your small part of the world, if at all? Check your workplace refrigerator. In boom times, folks tend to eat out more, especially for lunch. In leaner times, folks bring lunch, especially leftovers from the previous night’s dinner. This, plus a slew of other local economic indicators, tells you more about how the recession is impacting your world, your industry, your company, and your community than all the market metrics combined, because this is the sort of thing you see every day.

Some other indicators? If you work in an office, see how often the cleaning service does things like empty trash or clean the restrooms. Check the quality of consumables like toilet paper – changes, especially significant, fast jumps in quality – indicate that the first stages of cost cutting are occurring, possibly silently. In a tough economy, it’s the prudent thing to do for companies. If your company has a cafeteria, see if food selection and quality change significantly in a short time. Know your admin team really well? Ask them how frequently they’re reordering supplies (supplies tend to go missing at a faster rate in tougher times) and if they’ve been given additional, more stringent purchasing restrictions.

All of these little economic indicators, in and of themselves, mean little, but aggregated may give you a more complete picture of how things are going in your neck of the woods, and can help you plan accordingly. If you see a series of sudden, abrupt changes in your company, it might be time to start looking for another job before it’s too late.

The eye of the storm

Posted by Christopher S Penn on Jun 1, 2009 in Economy, Money | 39 comments

A couple of years ago, I posted a graphic of the mortgage resets from Credit Suisse First Boston. Let’s see where we are now.

Congratulations to all. We’ve made it through the subprime crisis and only lost GM, every investment bank, nearly wiped out the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund, put 1 out of 8 homeowners late or in foreclosure on their mortgages, and sent the economy into a tailspin. Otherwise, we made it through the subprime crisis.

We’re ready to start growing again, right?

Except… except the pool of alt-A and option ARM mortgages (all of which is defaulting at the same or higher rates of default than subprime 2 years ago) is still ahead, and it’s 50% bigger than the subprime mortgage market ever was.

If you’re thinking the worst of the storm has passed, it’s more like the eye of the hurricane. The second, stronger wall of the storm is arriving shortly. If you’re thinking that now is the time to spend a little more freely, to open up your wallet, think again and batten down the hatches. If anything, now is the time to increase your financial conservatism, to tighten spending if you can. Only once the storm has fully passed – in a couple of years – will it be time to go outside and start planting anew.

For more detailed charts, check out this post on Mish’s blog.

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