Government real estate numbers are a load of crap
The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses a wholly bogus imputed rent variable in its calculations about the health of the US economy and the health of the real estate industry.
BEA treats homeowners as businesses, which pay rent to themselves. Therefore, homeowners contribute to the real estate industry’s GSP even if not employed by the industry.
Talk about artificially inflating economic figures to make things look better than they are. This is akin to saying that if you own an iPod, you’re essentially running an iPod rental business, renting your iPod from yourself every month.
Does that make any sense at all to you? It doesn’t to me – and that means that the numbers on things like productivity, inflation, and the economic health and well being of the country are flawed.
What Martial Arts Can Teach Us About Improving Presentations
What Martial Arts Can Teach Us About Improving Presentations
One of the keys to being successful in the martial arts is taking good notes, storing away information. In ninjutsu, a secondary key is taking good notes in such a way that your notes are useful only to you. If someone borrows, copies, or steals your notes, they’re functionally useless to them. Yes, you may have possession of the Takagi family’s sacred scrolls, but unless you’ve been initiated into translating them, they’re not terribly helpful.
I was looking over my notes from Tuesday night’s class at the Boston Martial Arts Center, my personal notes for second degree black belt, and realized that in many ways, they’re the antithesis of a good presentation.
In my notes, I have the general prompts I need to recall something from memory, not a step by step outline of exactly what to do. I know what to do because my teacher taught it to me, but if I need to jog my memory about the setup, my notes contain enough detail to make me go, “Oh, yeah, that one!” and I’m ready to go. None of the nuance or subtlety makes its way into the notes because it doesn’t need to be there, and more importantly, can’t easily and quickly be put into words anyway, any more than you can accurately convey what a lychee tastes like in words. If you’ve had a lychee, you know exactly what I’m talking about. If you’ve never had a lychee, that sentence is devoid of context.
This is the danger, the curse of knowledge, that plagues presentations. The presenter knows what’s in their notes, and knows the subject matter, which means they risk leaving out vital pieces of information that surround their presentation, the context. The presentation may have giant gaps in it, but the presenter doesn’t know it because they don’t see their presentation – they see their experiences instead, filling in the gaps in their own head but leaving huge potholes for the audience trying to follow along.
This is why in both the martial arts and in Zen the concept of the beginner’s mind is so important, to be able to see without the past clouding our vision. As a presenter and speaker, seeing your own material with a beginner’s mind is vital but supremely difficult.
Listen carefully to the feedback from your presentations to see whether you’re failing to provide context and details in your presentation. You may find some critical points that, with just a few extra details, could radically improve your presentations.
Besides audience feedback, make sure you review video of yourself presenting, and ask yourself throughout the video if you’re making sense. If you can, have two cameras set up, one to film the audience, so that you can watch the crowd react to what you have to say, catching subtleties that you missed while presenting. It doesn’t have to be elaborate or expensive – a simple Flipcam on a tripod will do the trick. Be on the lookout especially for body language changes en masse, as well as facial expressions – these nonverbal cues can tell you when you’re being impactful – and when you’re missing the point.
As Shunryu Suzuki, a Zen master, said, in the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, in the expert’s mind there are few. If you want to explore the possibilities of becoming a better speaker, embrace the beginner’s mind and avoid the curse of knowledge.
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Why PodCamp Works – Integrated Verticals
Imagine for a moment that your industry, that your specialty, is a single post, a single beam. It represents your vertical, everything you’re good at, and also everything that’s wrong with your industry’s growth. It’s fishbowl. It’s vertical. It’s a silo, an echo chamber in which no new ideas flow in or out.
You keep struggling to find new ideas, new innovations. Event conferences in your industry are the same old, same old, with vendors marketing the same solutions to yesterday’s problems.
Now imagine you found a way to tie together your vertical with others.
Imagine you found a way to bridge the gap between your vertical, your silo, your fishbowl, and not just with one other silo, but with a ton of silos. Imagine a series of fishbowls connected, so many that you effectively have an ocean to swim in. Imagine you found the commonalities among verticals that were strengths, and that working with others in completely unrelated fields helped mitigate your individual weaknesses.
This is the mission of PodCamp. Bring together everyone from different worlds who wants to learn, share, and grow your new media skills. Bridge the gap between pools of ideas so that the best ideas are accessible to everyone, and the power of friends working together can overcome the obstacles that by yourself stood in your way.
Bring together the verticals and see what you can achieve.
See you at PodCamp.
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What martial arts can teach us about marketing
The martial art that I practice places an incredible amount of emphasis on the basics of the art. Basic footwork patterns, basic abilities to hit, grapple, throw, and otherwise put the kibosh on someone trying to hurt you.
One of the things that every senior instructor at my dojo, the Boston Martial Arts Center, constantly emphasizes is the refinement and polishing of our basics. If you punch someone, you want them to stay punched. If you throw someone, you want them to stay thrown. All the fancy moves and movie-like choreography will do you no good whatsoever if the bad guy gets back up and starts griefing you again; conversely, all the fancy moves are completely unnecessary if you get out of harm’s way and deck the guy so hard that his unconceived children feel it.
What does this have to do with marketing? Simple. We forget the basics all too often. In our attention deficit society, in our 90 hour work week system, we’re so easily distracted by flashy toys and tricks that we forget to practice and refine our basics. The ability to send out an effective direct email campaign. The ability to optimize a web page for the basics of search engine optimization. The ability to design a usable interface to our information.
This is a topic I’ll be talking about more at the MarketingProfs Digital Marketing Mixer in October. We’ll explore the levels of marketing basics just like a martial art, showing you what “white belt” skills will always pay off no matter how many grades of black belt you have.
In the end, no matter how fancy your marketing or martial arts, chances are in any real encounter on the street or in your vertical, you’re going to get one shot that will decide whether you make it or don’t. There’s no second place prize. The only way to be confident in that one shot is to have solid basics that you can rely on.
Ask yourself this as a marketer: what are your basics? How reliable are they? How confident are you in the results you can generate with them?
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FDIC Insurance Fund Falls Below Statutory Limit
Financial results for the second quarter are contained in the FDIC’s latest Quarterly Banking Profile, which was released today. Among the major findings:
Provisions for loan losses continue to be the main cause of falling earnings. Rising levels of troubled loans, particularly in real estate portfolios, led many institutions to increase their provisions for loan losses in the quarter. Loss provisions totaled $50.2 billion, more than four times the $11.4 billion the industry set aside in the second quarter of 2007. Almost a third of the industry’s net operating revenue (net interest income plus total noninterest income) went to building up loan-loss reserves.
Noncurrent loans are still rising sharply. The amount of noncurrent loans and leases (90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status) increased by $26.7 billion (20 percent) during the second quarter, following a $26.2 billion increase in the first quarter and a $27.0 billion increase in the fourth quarter of 2007. Almost 90 percent of the increase in noncurrent loans and leases in the last three quarters consisted of real estate loans, but noncurrent levels have been rising in all major loan categories. At the end of June, 2.04 percent of all loans and leases were noncurrent, the highest level for the industry since 1993.
Assets of insured institutions declined. Total assets of FDIC-insured institutions declined during the quarter for the first time since 2002. The $68.6 billion (0.5 percent) decline was caused by a reduction in trading assets at a few large banks. Assets in trading accounts, which increased by $135.2 billion in the first quarter, declined by $118.9 billion (11.8 percent) in the second quarter. In addition, the industry’s holdings of one- to four-family residential mortgage loans fell by $61.4 billion (2.8 percent). Real estate construction and development loans declined for the first time since 1997, falling by $5.4 billion (0.9 percent).
The FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund reserve ratio fell. Due to a significant increase in loss reserves, including reserves for failures that have occurred since June 30th, the DIF balance fell to $45.2 billion at the end of the second quarter, down from $52.8 billion at the end of the first quarter. While insured deposits rose only 0.5 percent during the quarter, the decline in the fund balance caused the reserve ratio to fall to 1.01 percent as of June 30th from 1.19 percent one quarter earlier. Because the reserve ratio is now below 1.15 percent, the Federal Deposit Insurance Reform Act of 2005 requires the FDIC to develop a restoration plan that will raise the reserve ratio to no less than 1.15 percent within five years.
This is a big deal, folks. A scant 1.01% reserve is all that stands between you and massive runs on banks.
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