Dalvik, Android, AppleTV, and TechCrunch

Posted by on Nov 20, 2007 in Technology | 0 comments

TechCrunch calls it first: Google Android could conceivably work on a television set top box. More than that, it seems destined to, from my perspective. Look inside Android:

Look down in the media layer. H.264, MPEG4, MP3, AAC, you name it, it’s in there. Plus OpenGL graphics for 3D.

How many phones have the processing power to take advantage of OpenGL? Not many.  Maybe the Nokia N series.

How many set top boxes have OpenGL ready 3D graphics chips? More than a few. Here’s Eagle Broadband‘s set top box.

Android is written on Dalvik, the virtual machine that looks a lot like Java and quacks like Java, which is what a lot of mobile phones run. However, lots of set top boxes do as well, plus Windows Embedded and Linux… which is what Android’s core is.

Google already serves up TV ads on EchoStar, according to the TechCrunch article. How much more powerful could it be if it controlled the set top box?

Politicians NEED Illegal Immigrants

Posted by on Nov 19, 2007 in Rant | 10 comments

Politicians Need Illegal Immigrants

Why, you ask, do politicians need illegal immigrants? Simple: economics. Illegal immigrants don’t show up in labor statistics or the official work force. Thus:

- when the economy is good, illegal immigrants provide a labor boost, increasing productivity without increasing official payrolls. Illegal immigrants also don’t get health insurance or any other benefits, making them the cheapest labor for companies. Politicians can claim credit for economic improvements on their watch.

- when the economy is bad, illegal immigrants can be terminated from the work force quickly and invisibly. They cannot claim unemployment and they do not show up in unemployment reports; as a result, politicians can claim that an economic downturn is not as severe because jobless claims didn’t increase very much.

- illegal immigrants cannot vote. A politician can continue to disenfranchise illegal immigrants with no political consequences because there’s no voting repercussions.

Given that the current status of illegal immigrants provides multiple positive incentives for politicians and few negative ones, is it any wonder that progress on a pathway to citizenship has not been made?

2008 Recession or Depression is Likely

Posted by on Nov 19, 2007 in Random, Rant | 9 comments

2008 Recession or Depression is Likely

I’ve been doing a lot of reading lately. Most of it has not been of good news and all of it has been about the economy. The economic issues that have caused disruption and disorder in 2007 – the credit crunch, housing bubble bursting, and high fuel prices – are, by my estimates, only going to get worse in 2008.

Here, for example, is the number of subprime mortgages set to reset in the coming year, courtesy of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank.

subprime

The economic difficulties that resulted from subprime mortgages going bad – loan portfolio writedowns, CDOs and other financial instruments imploding – all will only accelerate in 2008. Take a look at March, 2008 on the chart. From about $35 billion in resets to $50 billion – and upwards of 70% of subprime mortgages seem to be going bust lately. This is going to be a major economic shock.

On December 2, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez may gain the power from his constituents to suspend oil production in Venezuela, according to the LA Times. Should he gain that power, he can throw America under the bus, as a hefty percentage of American fuel runs through the refineries of Venezuela. A fuel crisis just as the holidays hit would be a major psychological shock to the US economy.

How do you deal with this all? Well, prepare as much as you can. Investments are likely to be unsafe – double check your retirement and where money is allocated. Look internationally or in secured accounts, and soon. Cash is king; debt is your enemy. On the fuel front, if you have any option of switching off fossil fuels to biomass – even a wood stove – do so, or have the capacity to do so. If you’re economically able to do so, now is the time to trade in the gas guzzler for the most efficient thing your money can buy. Negotiate with your office if possible to telecommute as much as you can – if gas hits $4/gallon, not driving a day a week to work could pay for the fastest class of broadband available in your area.

It’s never a bad idea to have some emergency rations on hand. Brown and white rice store well in plastic, animal and insect-resistant containers, cook relatively easily, and last for months, if not years. Having a few gallons of water in your basement in sealed jugs is always smart, even in the best of times.

Be ready. 2008 is going to be a rough ride.

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Nunavut – Battleground for the Arctic

Posted by on Nov 18, 2007 in Random | 6 comments

Ever heard of Nunavut, Canada? I hadn’t. That shows how badly out of date my geographic knowledge of Canada is. Nunavut was designated a Canadian territory in 1999, splitting off from the Northwest Territories. It’s a huge place – 31,000 people spread over an area the size of Western Europe, and it’s a name you’ll be hearing a lot more of in the coming years and decades. Why?

Well, Nunavut contains some of the northernmost points of North America. Previously, that was only sort of interesting, as the area is cold and icy.

Thanks to global warming, it’s not as cold nor as icy any more, and that means the opening of the Arctic Ocean to shipping. What does that mean? Ships won’t necessarily be forced to use the Panama Canal any more – a ship could conceivably sail from England to Tokyo across the Arctic Ocean – which will change the flows of international commerce. This is the Northwest Passage, and is hotly debated in international circles. Canada says the Northwest Passage is sovereign territory. The United States and the EU claim it’s international waters. The difference? Millions of dollars in shipping and passage.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has repeated that the Northwest Passage belongs to Canada. Frankly, as an American who can actually locate it on a map, Mr. Harper is welcome to it, since most everything you can buy in the United States is made in China anyway. I suspect my opinion is probably in the minority, though. America’s track record for respecting other nations’ sovereignty hasn’t been so hot the last 7 years or so.

Is it wrong of me to say that if you can’t locate Nunavut on a map, your opinion on Canada’s sovereignty claims are automatically invalid?

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Thoughts from the road

Posted by on Nov 15, 2007 in Blogging, PodCamp | 4 comments

Thoughts from the road

I’ve been on the road a heck of a lot lately, getting to meet lots of interesting people, talking about new media. Ever since September, it’s been go-go-go and I’m grateful for a pause until spring. In order:

- NASFAA
- Podcasters Across Borders
- PodCamp Philly
- Emerson College
- Bentley College
- NASFAA private engagement
- PodCamp Boston
- MASFAA
- SREB GoAlliance

There have been a surprising number of commonalities during the trips; at each location, I’ve had the opportunity to speak publicly about new media – podcasting, blogging, social networks, and much more. Some of the commonalities of the audiences:

1. At least 50% of the audience has no real mental framework to even begin assessing the worth of new media. They know the buzzwords from mainstream media, but are unsure of how all the pieces fit together.

2. Virtually 100% of the audience is very, very, very interested in new media in one or more aspects. SREB brought me in principally to speak about social networks. MASFAA brought me in to talk about podcasting. The desire and interest to learn more about new media is very strong and growing.

3. Analogies to existing mental frameworks are critical to understanding how to explain new media channels to people new to the world of new media. Some of the explanations I’ve used:

- Blogs are newspaper columns written by columnists… without the rest of the newspaper. Hat tip to Chris Brogan for the seed idea on this one.
- Audio podcasts are downloadable internet radio shows.
- Video podcasts are downloadable internet TV shows.
- Social networks are a cross between virtual conferences and virtual water coolers.

When put in at least a semblance of a mental framework, it’s been my experience that audiences are more easily able to change aspects of an existing idea rather than try to form a completely new one. Downloadable internet radio isn’t quite right (it ignores RSS, subscription mechanisms, etc.) but it’s close enough that people can make adjustments to their internal pictures and sounds rather than create new ones.

4. People have no idea regional new media communities exist. For example, SREB brought me into Atlanta to speak, but there’s a huge blog and podcast community here – heck, there was a PodCamp here, so the community exists. I would love to be able to travel to each of the cities I have been to this past year and help them sign up for a PodCamp; because each city has had one (Atlanta, Boston, DC). That, I think, would go a long way towards not only making PodCamps more local, but also getting new media producers connected more tightly with their communities.

Travel will pick up in the spring again, but for now I’m happy for a couple of months of hibernation and family-only travel. Thanks to everyone who requested me as a public speaker at all the recent events lately – I am grateful for the chances to serve your communities.